November 20, 2009
Putting news of President Obama's approval rate
dipping below 50% in perspective,
USA Today runs an excellent interactive chart plotting presidential approval rates since 1945.
When comparing various presidents to each other, as of right now, President Obama most closely tracks Ronald Reagan.
With Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)
announcing today that he would vote on Saturday night to bring the health care reform bill up for debate, attention turns to four others whose votes may indicate the ultimate success or failure of the bill.
- Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) -- According to Politico, she's already told Reid how she'll vote but she hasn't made her intentions public yet. A new poll shows her vote may be critical to her re-election prospects next year.
- Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) -- She's voiced opposition to the public
option, but Bloomberg notes there was a $100 million addition to the
bill to win her support
- Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) -- We've already documented his threats to block the public option, but he's stated publicly he'll at least vote to bring the bill to the Senate floor.
- Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) -- She was the only Republican senator to vote the bill out of the Senate Finance Committee, but she's also voiced opposition to the public option.
The Saturday vote is mostly political theater at this point -- even reluctant Democrats know they must at least bring the bill to the floor for debate -- but it's not clear how each of the four will actually vote.
The Senate Ethics Committee publicly admonished Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) for "discrediting himself and the Senate in the way he sought appointment to the seat of now-President Barack Obama,"
Roll Call reports.
In a
public letter of qualified admonition, the committee found that Burris "should have known that you were providing incorrect, inconsistent, misleading or incomplete information to the public, the Senate and those conducting legitimate inquiries into your appointment to the Senate."
There's an online version of the
Inside Tim Russert's Office exhibit that opens today at the Newseum.
Earlier this month we noted that Gallup's daily
tracking poll showed President Obama's approval rate
bouncing around 50% for several months but never actually breaking through that line.
Apparently that streak will end today when Gallup updates its numbers at 1 p.m. ET.
Who wants to bet that Rush Limbaugh
takes credit on his radio show today?
DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) tells
The Hotline that the key to Democratic fortunes in the midterm elections will be mobilizing the voters who showed up for last year's presidential election.
Said Van Hollen: "If you were to see the kind of turnout in the Congressional elections of 2010 that
you saw in these off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, that would spell trouble. But there's no reason to believe that we're going to have that kind of turnout, because voters who came out to support Obama will understand that ... he has a huge stake."
A new
Marist Poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) has massive leads over both Gov. David Paterson (D) for his party's gubernatorial nomination, 72% to 21%, and against Rick Lazio (R) in the general election, 69% to 24%.
Said pollster Lee Miringoff: "Right now, Andrew Cuomo has a clear path to become governor. If he could fast-forward to next November, I'm sure he would."
A new
Rasmussen survey finds 51% of Americans believe canceling the rest of the economic stimulus money would create more jobs than actually spending it.
Derek Thompson: "That is insane... The idea that canceling the stimulus would create more jobs implies that passing the stimulus has actually killed more jobs than it's created, which is bonkers. Let's say you don't want to consider infrastructure spending or green technology spending or a single job that might have been created in the private sector. If nothing else, the tens of billions we've sent to state budgets have, without question, saved hundreds of thousands of jobs, like teachers, that are supported by state taxes. It's just a very
basic fact."
"We'll find out when the votes are taken."
-- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), quoted by
The Hill, when asked if he has the 60 votes needed to bring his health care bill up for debate.
First Read: "Realistically, is more being made out of this drama than should be?
Does it make political sense for any Democrat to prevent even debate on
this bill even for Democrats who may eventually vote against it? To not
allow debate would be a slap in the face of the Dem base and no Dem
officeholder would do that, would they?"
Interesting observation by
Ben Smith: "Ever since cooperating with a big
New Yorker article, Richard Holbrooke's profile has been so low at home that he at one point gave an
interview to a reporter to deny that he's lying low."
Holbrooke was once seen as the most powerful voice in shaping policy towards Afghanistan. Now, he's nearly invisible.
A must-read piece in
Time shows how the Obama administration's decision to release photographs of suspected terrorists being abused in U.S. custody was part of an "unseen struggle" that ultimately led to Greg Craig's
announced departure as White House counsel.
"Interviews with two dozen current and former officials show that Obama's public decision to reverse himself and fight the release of the photographs signaled a behind-the-scenes turning point in his young presidency. Beginning in the first two weeks of May, Obama took harder lines on government secrecy, on the fate of prisoners at Guantánamo Bay and on the prosecution of terrorists worldwide. The President was moving away from some promises he had made during the campaign and toward more moderate positions, some favored by George W. Bush. At the same time, he quietly shifted responsibility for the legal framework for counterterrorism from Craig to political advisers overseen by Emanuel, who was more inclined to strike a balance between left and right."
A new
Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in a virtual tie with potential Republican primary challenger J.D. Hayworth (R), who is currently
mulling a run.
McCain barely edges Hayworth, 45% to 43%.
A new
Zogby poll in Arkansas finds Sen.Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in a tight race for re-election.
In possible match ups, Lincoln barely edges Gilbert Baker (R), 41% to 39%, but beats Kim Hendren (R) handily, 45% to 29%.
Key finding: "But when voters were asked how they would vote in a Lincoln-Baker race if Lincoln voted in favor of the health care legislation, the incumbent Democrat fell behind her possible GOP challenger 37-49. In all, 48% of likely Arkansas voters said they would be less likely to back Lincoln's re-election if she supports the health care bill with 38% saying they were much less likely to support her in that event."
A new
CNN/Opinion Research survey indicates that 38% of Americans blame Republicans for the country's current economic problems, 27% blame Democrats and 27% blame both parties.
That's down 15 points for Republicans and up 6 points for Democrats since May.
Said pollster Keating Holland: "The bad news for the Democrats is that the number of Americans who hold the GOP exclusively responsible for the recession has been steadily falling by about two to three points per month. At that rate, only a handful of voters will blame the economy on the Republicans by the time next year's midterm elections roll around."
November 19, 2009
In an interview with
ABC News, Doug Hampton, the former co-chief of staff to Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) talked about the affair between his former boss and his wife, Cindy Hampton, also a former Ensign employee.
The bombshell: "Hampton told McFadden that the money Ensign's parents paid him in the aftermath of the affair was severance --
not a gift -- as Ensign had claimed, which could constitute a violation of campaign finance laws."
A HarperCollins insider tells the
Daily Beast that Sarah Palin's
Going Rogue sold a staggering 300,000 copies on the first day alone.
The NY-23 special election is finally over as Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY) leads Doug Hoffman (C) by 3,105 votes with 3,072 absentee ballots left to be counted, according to the
Watertown Daily Times.
The big question: Will Hoffman concede again since he
unconceded earlier this week?
A new
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows President Obama's approval rating sinking to a new low of 46% with an equal number now disapproving of the job Obama is doing as President.
In the generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead Democrats, 42% to 39% with 15% undecided.
A new
Marist Poll in New York shows that Rudy Giuliani (D) would a formidable challenger to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and now holds a 14 point lead, 54% to 40%.
Key finding: "Even one-third of Democrats report they would back the Republican challenger, and Giuliani runs competitively against Gillibrand in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City."
Reports suggest Giuliani
has told confidants that he will likely run for Senate and not Govenor next year.
Update: Giuliani aides now
deny he's made a decision to run for Senate.
From the latest
Cook Political Report: Democrats are now defending 38 of the 50 most competitive House seats in 2010.
In a
radio interview with Bill Press, Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) ripped into President Obama and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel saying they are caving in to "nutty right-wing" proposals just to get a health care bill passed.
Said Conyers: "I'm getting tired of saving Obama's can in the White House."
Read more...
"I don't think about that stuff. I'm just -- I'm being a legislator. After what I went through in 2006, there's nothing much more that anybody [who] disagrees with me can try to do."
-- Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), quoted by
Politico, on the prospect of a strong Democratic challenger in 2012 if he blocks health care reform in the Senate.
Rudy Giuliani (R) "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy," the
New York Times reports.
"His decision is a blow to many Republican leaders, who had viewed Mr. Giuliani as the strongest potential candidate in a year in which voter anger and anti-Albany sentiment appear to be swelling."
Perhaps Andrew Cuomo's (D)
secret chat a few weeks ago convinced him not to make the race.
Update: The
New York Daily News says Giuliani will run for the U.S. Senate instead.
A new
Public Policy Pollling survey finds that 52% of Republican voters nationally think that ACORN stole the Presidential election for Barack Obama last year, with only 27% granting that he won it legitimately.
Is that just delusional? Probably. But it now makes sense that Doug Hoffman is
playing up the ACORN conspiracy theory in the NY-23 special election.
A new
DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Florida shows Marco Rubio (R) surging in his race with Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for the Republican Senate nomination.
Crist now leads Rubio, 47% to 37%. In January, Crist led 57% to 11.
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