November 06, 2009
"The White House is strongly denying a story
claiming that White House officials privately threatened to retaliate against a Democratic strategist for appearing on Fox News -- a claim generating a big stir on the right as the latest example of the White House's victimization of the network," reports
Greg Sargent.
Said communications adviser Dan Pfeiffer: "While we have our disagreements with FOX, administration officials appear on the network and we have no issue with others who choose to do so."
Rothenberg Political Report: "Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win -- including a divided Republican Party -- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a Pure Toss-Up."
Veteran's Day isn't until next week but this
video of a 10 year old girl talking about her father stationed in Iraq couldn't wait.
Read more...
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said "that he expected the House to pass sweeping health care legislation on Saturday evening. But he acknowledged that Democrats were still trying to corral the necessary 218 votes, and that what he called Republican delaying tactics could push the vote back to Sunday or early next week," the
New York Times reports.
Said Hoyer: "We will be successful in the next two or three days."
Update: Democratic House leadership aides tell
First Read "there will, in fact, be a vote
tomorrow on health-reform legislation -- despite reports suggesting a
vote could be pushed back to Sunday or even next week... The aide, however, conceded the vote could slip later into tomorrow evening."
Update II:
Congress Daily says Democrats need 10 more votes.
"At least one Democratic political strategist has gotten a blunt warning from the White House to never appear on Fox News Channel, an outlet that presidential aides have depicted as not so much a news-gathering operation as a political opponent bent on damaging the Obama administration," the
Chicago Tribune reports.
The strategist said the message was, "We better not see you on again."
"In urging Democratic consultants to spurn Fox, White House officials might be trying to isolate the network and make it appear more partisan. A boycott by Democratic strategists could also help drive the White House narrative that Fox is a fundamentally different creature than the other TV news networks."
If you look at the
age breakdown of polling data showing support for gay marriage, it's clear that younger people are much more supportive than older people. Even in states normally considered hostile to gay rights, there is still a significant age difference: For instance, 18-29 year-olds in Alabama, for example, are still more supportive of gay marriage than people 65 and older in Massachusetts.
Kim Strassel: "On Jan. 20, Barack Obama began a race against time. The White House knew its liberal agenda would prove unpopular in many parts of the country represented by Democrats. So long as the president looked strong, those Blue Dogs and freshmen and swing-state senators would stick. Show them any sign of weakness, however, and rattled Dems would begin to care more about their own re-elections than they did their president."
"Tuesday, the White House hit that tipping point."
House Democrats "are scrambling" to secure votes to pass President Obama's health care reform effort, "working to soothe last-minute concerns from rank-and-file Democrats ahead of a make-or-break vote," the
AP reports.
Voting is set for Saturday on the 10-year, $1.2 trillion legislation.
The
Washington Post says party leaders "were struggling" to "contain uprisings on the hot-button issues
of abortion and immigration that have left them little margin for error
as they attempt to push through a massive health-care reform bill this
weekend."
First Read: "The next 48 hours are going to be wild, but considering the country's
focus on the tragedy to Ft. Hood, the battle will take place mostly
behind the scenes and out of the media spotlight."
"U.S. unemployment rose by more than expected in October to hit its highest level in more than 26 years and employers cut more jobs than forecast, a sign the labor market continues to struggle as the economy emerges from its deep recession," the
Wall Street Journal reports.
"The unemployment rate, calculated using a survey of households as opposed to companies, rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast an increase to 9.9%."
Interestingly,
ABC News notes public opinion on the economy "has not moved" over the last year. But the question is "how long Obama's got until it goes up, or he goes down - possibly with his party in tow."
The perfect way to start your day:
Jon Stewart makes fun of Glenn Beck.
Read more...
"It is harvest season in Iowa. For Republicans who want to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012, though, it is time to start planting seeds,"
Bloomberg reports.
Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, and George Pataki all have planned visits before the end of the year. Sarah Palin is considering one as well.
"If it all seems early -- the next presidential election is three years away -- consider that Huckabee, who won his party's 2008 Iowa caucuses, had been to the state five times by this point in 2005."
Nate Silver notes polling firm Strategic Vision has been very quiet since the
controversy broke about their methodology and accusations that they
possibly faked results.
"Strategic Vision vehemently denied my interpretation of the evidence
and made public threats to sue me. But no lawyer has contacted me, and
in fact, Strategic Vision has not conducted any further public polling
since that time."
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said "she will base a decision on whether to run for California governor next year largely on the solutions the announced candidates put forward to deal with the state's fiscal problems," the
AP reports.
Republicans have three candidates running for governor: Steve Poizner (R), Meg Whitman (R) and Tom Campbell (R).
Democrats have no announced candidate so far, though Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) has formed an exploratory committee.
November 05, 2009
New York Gov. David Paterson (D) isn't just
running television ads in an attempt to improve his popularity and run for re-election.
According to
WCBS-TV, he's "bringing on board campaign powerhouse Harold Ickes, who was former President Bill Clinton's Deputy Chief of Staff."
Politico notes that "lost amid the Republican euphoria surrounding Tuesday's elections is this inconvenient fact: The GOP just got its clock cleaned, again, in another high-stakes House special election."
"It shouldn't have come as a surprise, since Republicans have lost 20 of the past 29 House special elections, dating back to January 2003. And in perhaps the most worrisome aspect of the trend, the GOP lost its fifth consecutive competitive special election in Republican-friendly territory."
Here's a bit of a surprise: New York Gov. David Paterson (D), still suffering from
terrible job approval numbers, just released his first re-election advertisements.
Key line: "When you become governor, you learn you will make a lot of mistakes."
Ben Smith notes the ads are "aimed at improving his low poll numbers and signaling his determination to seek another term in office."
Read more...
Mark Blumenthal has a must-read look at the final polls from Tuesday's election.
"If what you care about most is predicting the winners, it is clear that the automated surveys provided a more accurate gauge of the outcome... But that said, consider that we count on polls to do much more than predict the outcome..."
"Automated polls have been maligned, unfairly in my view, as inherently 'unreliable.' Yet when it comes to predicting election outcomes they continue to prove, NY-23 aside, at least as reliable as surveys done by conventional means. In New Jersey this week, they were more accurate in predicting the winner. At the same time, however, it would be wrong to jump to the opposite conclusion and place inherently greater trust in all automated surveys, especially when used for purposes other than predicting election outcomes."
"All polls have their limitations. Rather than trying to divide them into two categories, 'reliable' and 'crap,' we might do better to try to understand their limitations and interpret the results we see accordingly."
Join me for an
Early Election Preview on Tuesday, November 17 at 8:30 am at the Columbus Club at Union Station in Washington, D.C.
I'll be moderating a great panel of pollsters and analysts who will
weigh in on the 2010 elections, looking at trends around the country,
the influence of President Obama and the impact of recent legislation
on close races.
Confirmed panelists:
- Peter Brown, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
- Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling
- Scott Rasmussen, Rasmussen Reports
Space is limited, so
please register now.
For your reading pleasure, here are the complete exits polls from
New Jersey and
Virginia.
Former New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik pleaded guilty to eight felonies in a federal court, the
New York Times reports.
Some of the charges "stemmed from statements Mr. Kerik made to the White House during the vetting process after the Bush administration nominated him to lead the Department of Homeland Security. He later withdrew his name."
Kerik faces 27 to 33 months in prison.
"It's getting harder every day and we know that it's important that we pass this stimulus package."
-- Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R), at a
rally with President Obama on February 10, 2009.
"I didn't endorse it. I didn't even have a vote on the darned thing."
-- Crist, in a
CNN interview yesterday.
"We'll come after you."
-- RNC Chairman Michael Steele, in an interview on
Top Line, warning Republicans who support President Obama on economic stimulus or health care.
Read more...
In response to the RNC's twelve hour
online town hall to "explain the democratic health care bill," DNC Press Secretary Hari Sevugan issued the following statement:
"We're planning a twelve second town hall to explain every last detail of the GOP health care plan."
With a year until the midterm elections, a new by
Ipsos/McClatchy poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, 48% to 41% with 6% undecided.
Democrats lead even though 68% disapprove of the job the current Congress is doing while 29% approve.
Caveat: The survey included all adults and not just likely voters.
Chuck Raasch reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has literally read the book on the last Senate leader to go down to defeat in his re-election campaign.
The book is
Daschle vs. Thune: Anatomy of a High-Plains Senate Race but Raasch notes, "although there are similarities between Daschle's experience then and Reid's position now, there are key differences that argue that while Reid may be down, don't yet count him out."
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